How Ontario Homeowners Are Actually Coping With Higher Renewal Payments

What the survey actually found

As the last wave of renewals from the era of ultra-low borrowing costs arrives, a new survey suggests most homeowners are managing higher payments better than the headlines might suggest.

According to a Royal LePage report covered by Canadian Mortgage Trends, 38% of Canadians with an upcoming renewal expect their payment to increase, down from 57% of renewing homeowners in early 2025. Still, one-third of respondents said they felt anxious about their upcoming renewal, and among those expecting a higher payment, 76% said it would strain their household finances.

Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage, called a higher payment "absolutely anxiety-provoking" — and said he's confident most of those households will manage the transition, much as the households before them in recent renewal waves have.

How people are actually coping

Among homeowners expecting a higher payment, more than half said they'd reduce discretionary spending to manage it. Nearly three-quarters of those with an upcoming renewal said they would not be changing their living arrangements — in other words, most people are absorbing the change rather than moving.

The survey also found 8% of respondents extended their amortization period to bring the monthly payment down, and 6% reported missing or deferring a payment at least once during their current term. Among that smaller group who missed a payment, 19% said their mortgage had gone into arrears for 90 days or more.

The bigger picture: arrears remain historically low

Despite the strain some households are feeling, the report says mortgage delinquency levels in Canada remain remarkably low compared with other developed countries. The national share of mortgages 90 days or more overdue rose to 0.24% in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from 0.21% a year earlier, according to CMHC data cited in the report — a small move, and still well below pre-pandemic levels.

Soper credited the mortgage stress test with helping avoid the wave of defaults some commentators predicted when ultra-low-cost mortgages began renewing into today's environment. "There were some market commentators who had predicted that a huge rush on mortgages at very, very low [pricing] would cause a wave of mortgage defaults when people moved into more normal [conditions]," he told the Canadian Press. "That never really materialized." He described typical bank financing today, sitting around four to five per cent, as the new "normal" borrowers are transitioning into.

What the anxious third have in common

The survey doesn't break out exactly why a third of renewing homeowners feel anxious rather than merely inconvenienced, but the pattern in the underlying numbers is suggestive. The households reporting real strain are concentrated among those expecting an increase in the first place — 76% of that group said it would strain their finances, against a much calmer picture among the 62% who don't expect their payment to rise at all.

That points to a fairly ordinary explanation: uncertainty is what drives anxiety more than the payment increase itself. Someone who has already modelled their new payment, even if it's higher, tends to experience the renewal very differently than someone who is still guessing at the number three weeks before their term ends. The practical takeaway isn't complicated — it's that the anxiety is disproportionately a preparation gap, not strictly a math problem.

If you're in this wave — including in Waterloo Region

This isn't a national abstraction. If you bought a home, or last renewed, anywhere in Ontario during 2020 or 2021, you very likely locked in while the Bank of Canada's overnight benchmark sat at 0.25% during the pandemic. That benchmark has held at 2.25% since October 2025. Waterloo Region, London and the rest of southwestern Ontario aren't exempt from this wave — the timing applies wherever in the province you bought.

The survey's finding that most households are managing is genuine reassurance, but it's an average, and averages don't tell you what your own renewal looks like. The households doing best going into this wave tend to be the ones who got their own numbers early rather than waiting for the letter.

What to actually do with this

• Find your renewal date exactly, not roughly. Most lenders hold a written offer open about 120 days ahead of it, and that window shrinks fast once you're inside it.
• Model your new payment before the letter arrives using your actual balance and remaining amortization, so a number on paper isn't the first time you see it. Our mortgage calculators use the correct semi-annual Canadian math for fixed terms.
• If a prepayment charge from your current lender is part of the decision, understand what it actually costs before it factors into your choice — see Penalty Protector Pro.
• If you'd rather have someone watch the market for you ahead of a renewal that's still months out, that's what Rate Tracker Pro is for.
• If your renewal is coinciding with a move, not just a term end, the timing questions are different — see Next Home Hub for porting, bridge financing and buy-vs-sell-first.