Ontario Is on Pace to Miss Its 1.5 Million Homes Target. What Two New Reports Mean for Buyers

What the Toronto board of trade found

Ontario set a goal in 2022 of at least 1.5 million new homes by 2031. A new report says the province will not get there.

According to The Canadian Press, published by Canadian Mortgage Trends, the Toronto Region Board of Trade said the target is unachievable by the current deadline even if housing production increases over the next five years. Based on budget forecasts, the board’s analysis projects Ontario falling more than 550,000 homes short of the pace needed by 2029.

The board’s explanation is about process as much as money. Even with ambitious reforms adopted immediately, municipalities would still need to update plans, amend zoning bylaws, align infrastructure, service land and process applications, steps that “could take years.” It called zoning and building code rules across the province “very fragmented” and recommended a provincial zoning code, a baseline of housing types allowed without special approval starting with townhouses and multiplexes, and a review of the cost each building code requirement adds.

The same report said that between 2006 and 2025, Toronto-area home prices as measured by the composite price rose around 187%, against roughly 51% cumulative inflation. It also argued that “without continued housing construction, recent affordability gains are likely to prove temporary.” That is the board’s view, not a forecast we can verify.

What the CMHC survey found on rental supply

A separate piece of research looked at the other half of the supply picture. Canadian Mortgage Trends reports on a survey of rental housing developers, owners and investors conducted by EY for CMHC. Of respondents, 72% said they had paused or cancelled projects in response to rising costs over the past two to three years. Others had raised rents (54%), extended timelines (44%) or reduced unit sizes (44%).

• Government regulations, fees and approval delays ranked as the most significant challenge nationally and in every region reported.
• Faster, more predictable approvals ranked as the policy change most likely to help. Lower or deferred development charges ranked second nationally and first for developers in the Greater Toronto Area.
• 78% had obtained funding for a new rental project in the past year, up from 75% in 2025. CMHC-insured loans were the most commonly used source, at 85%.
• For homes with three or more bedrooms, 72% said development costs that achievable rents could not offset were a barrier.

Two cautions from the source itself. The survey collected 110 responses between 28 May and 13 July 2026, and the report says its findings are directional indicators of industry sentiment, not a statistically representative sample. And CMHC’s accompanying Housing Observer said new purpose-built rental supply is already helping lift vacancy and slow rent growth in parts of Canada, though new units are concentrated at higher price points.

What the Bank of Canada says it cannot do

The Bank of Canada’s Senior Deputy Governor, Carolyn Rogers, addressed the supply question directly in a 1 October speech reported by Canadian Mortgage Trends and Bloomberg. She said borrowing costs are a “blunt tool” for housing demand and cannot address supply constraints like permitting or limited construction. She added that raising borrowing costs can slow price growth but can also slow construction, while cuts help households afford higher prices but stoke demand when supply is short.

Her conclusion was that the goal has to be a policy mix that increases supply, protects resilience and reduces the economy’s dependence on rising house prices. We looked at the Bank’s own research on the same theme in our earlier piece.

Where prices are today

The context matters, because the reports land in a softer market. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board said the average GTA selling price was $993,410 in August, down 2.7% from a year earlier, and its composite benchmark was down 4.5%. Rogers noted national sales were a seasonally adjusted 37,738 in August, below historical averages for years, with prices about 20% below their pandemic-era peak.

We covered the sales side in our look at August sales and the national supply gap in CMHC’s 2036 estimate.

What this means if you are buying

The tempting reading is “supply is short, so prices will rise, so I should buy now.” Neither report says that, and we would not either. A board of trade’s projection about 2029 and a survey about developer sentiment say nothing about the price of the house you are looking at this month.

• Timelines are long. Zoning, servicing and approvals take years. Supply policy changes are slow to reach any one neighbourhood.
• Your decision is about carrying the mortgage. Whether you can afford the payment at the current terms, and at a higher renewal, matters more than a regional supply projection. Try the calculators.
• Qualifying does not change. Lenders assess your income, debts and down payment against the stress test regardless of what the pipeline looks like. The pre-qualification tool gives an illustrative starting point.
• Local markets differ. Provincial totals do not describe a single street. Our Buying a Home page covers the process from preparation to closing.