The short version
- The Bank's projections show residential real estate making virtually no contribution to economic growth through 2028, according to Bloomberg's reading of the October report.
- “Subdued” describes activity, not a forecast of a crash. National September prices were down 1.6% from a year earlier, per CREA as reported by the Canadian Press.
- A slow market shifts leverage and timing, not the arithmetic of your own file. Your qualifying and your renewal date still decide what you can do.
- The useful question is not “what will prices do?” but “what do I need to be true by my closing or renewal date?”
What was actually said
On October 28 the Bank of Canada raised its overnight target by a quarter point to 2.5%. In the press conference that followed, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers was asked about housing and chose one word for the outlook: subdued.
According to the Canadian Press, Rogers said borrowing costs are already weighing on the housing market and that the increase “will add to that a bit on the margin.” She added that the housing outlook in the Bank's forecast takes all of that into account.
Bloomberg, writing the following day, reported that the Bank's projections now show residential real estate making virtually no contribution to economic growth through 2028. It also noted that if activity follows that path, the country would be six years into a housing slump, a comparison it drew with the 1990s. That comparison is Bloomberg's framing, and Bloomberg itself pointed out that today's pressures, energy prices and the trade dispute with the United States, differ from those of the 1990s.
The numbers behind the word
The Canadian Real Estate Association's September figures, reported by the Canadian Press, put the national average sale price at $666,538, down 1.6% from a year earlier. National sales were down 7.7% over the same period. CREA attributed the softness to higher fixed borrowing costs and the Bank's more hawkish tone.
Earlier in October CREA lowered its 2026 sales forecast for the third time this year, to a 5.2% drop in sales from last year, a change we covered in a separate article. Those are national numbers. Ontario's boards publish their own, and the local stories differ by city and by property type.
The Bank also noted that higher energy and import costs are expected to raise the costs of housing construction and maintenance through pricier materials and equipment. That matters because slow demand and rising building costs pull in opposite directions on new supply.
If you are selling
A subdued market rewards preparation and realistic pricing more than it rewards waiting. Buyers in a quiet market compare more homes and take longer. Re/Max Canada president Don Kottick told the Canadian Press that more balanced conditions in many regions are giving buyers more choice and room to negotiate.
- Price against recent closed sales of comparable homes in your neighbourhood, not against what a neighbour hoped for last year.
- If you are also buying, find out your new qualifying figure before you list. The stress test applies to the next purchase even if your current home sells well.
- If you hold a mortgage that renews soon, ask what a sale before renewal does to your penalty, or whether porting is an option. Both are lender-specific.
Our article on porting a mortgage covers when carrying your mortgage to a new home works and when it does not.
If you are buying
More choice and more time to negotiate are real. They are not the same as cheaper money. Financing is where the Bank's decision lands for a buyer: the five-year fixed pricing that lenders offer is driven by bond markets rather than by the overnight target, and as the Canadian Press reported, CREA tied weaker sales to higher fixed costs.
- Get a pre-approval and read what it holds. Any price hold a lender offers on a pre-approval has an expiry and conditions. It is not a commitment to lend.
- Ask for the payment at a higher borrowing cost than today's, so you know your room if costs rise again. The Bank said more increases may be needed, though it also said it will take decisions one meeting at a time.
- Build closing-day cash into the plan. See our closing-cost breakdown.
Ontario is not one market
CMHC deputy chief economist Aled ab Iorwerth said earlier this week that Canada is not facing a broad mortgage crisis, but that financial pressure is showing up in specific regions, including the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area and southwestern Ontario, where trade tensions are weighing on manufacturing. CMHC reported Ontario's mortgage arrears rose to 0.32% in the second quarter, below historical peaks, and expects them to keep rising through mid-2027.
For Waterloo Region and London, that is context rather than a verdict. Local conditions are in the monthly board releases, which we summarize in our market articles once they publish.
A better question than “where are prices going?”
Nobody, including the Bank, can tell you what one home will sell for in a year. What you can control is whether your plan holds in more than one scenario. Work out the payment you can carry, the cash you need at closing, and the date any current mortgage renews. Then decide whether the timing works for you.
Our calculators let you test a few scenarios side by side, and the buying guide and Next Home Hub walk through the sequence if you are moving.
Nearly thirty years in Canadian financial services, based in Waterloo Region and working across Ontario. Most people are handed a product — you deserve a plan.
Everything here is illustrative and subject to lender approval and final terms. Figures are examples built on stated assumptions, not quotes, and lender policies differ.
Sources: Canadian Press via CMT — BoC warns of ‘subdued’ outlook for housing market as rate hike raises borrowing costs · Bloomberg via CMT — Rate hike kicks Canada’s housing market when it’s down · Bloomberg via CMT — Bank of Canada hikes to 2.5%, says more could be needed · Bank of Canada — Policy decision, 28 October 2026