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Housing MarketGTA Sales Fell 7.9% in October. Lower Prices Offset Part of the Higher Borrowing Cost
TRREB says lower selling prices have mitigated the effect of higher borrowing costs on monthly payments. A worked example shows how close the two can come to cancelling.
The short version
- TRREB reported 5,603 GTA home sales in October 2026, down 7.9% from a year earlier, though seasonally adjusted sales edged up from September.
- The average selling price was $1,024,108, down 2.7%; the composite benchmark was down 4.3%.
- TRREB's Jason Mercer said lower selling prices have mitigated the effect of higher borrowing costs on monthly payments.
- On an illustrative example, a 2.7% lower price roughly offsets a quarter-point rise in the contract figure: the monthly payment lands within about $11 of last year's.
What TRREB reported for October
Doubts about inflation, borrowing costs and the economy kept many Greater Toronto Area buyers on the sidelines in October, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.
According to TRREB's October 2026 release, GTA REALTORS reported 5,603 sales through its MLS system, down 7.9% from October 2025. New listings were 14,173, down 11.9%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, both sales and new listings were up from September.
The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark was down 4.3% year over year, and the average selling price, at $1,024,108, was down 2.7%. Both edged up month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Canadian Mortgage Trends, relaying the Canadian Press report, added that active listings were down 10% from a year earlier, with 25,098 homes for sale across the region, and that sales fell in every housing type, led by townhouses (down 11%) and condominiums (down 10.4%).
Our September look described the same hesitation. October adds the Bank of Canada's 28 October increase to the backdrop, which we covered in what the October decision changes for Ontario borrowers.
The claim worth checking: do lower prices offset higher borrowing costs?
Jason Mercer, TRREB's chief information officer, said that while borrowing costs have increased on the back of higher inflation, the impact on monthly mortgage payments has been mitigated by lower selling prices, helping keep affordability in check.
That is a testable statement, and the arithmetic is simple enough to do. Here is an illustration, not a quote from any lender.
- A year ago: a home at about $1,052,500 (the average price divided by 0.973, working back from the board's 2.7% decline), 20% down, a $842,000 mortgage, 25 years, at an illustrative 4.50% fixed contract figure. Payment: about $4,660 a month.
- Today: a home at the October average of $1,024,108, 20% down, a $819,286 mortgage, 25 years, at an illustrative 4.75%. Payment: about $4,649 a month.
- The result: a quarter-point higher, and the payment is about $11 lower, because the loan is about $22,700 smaller.
Canadian fixed mortgages compound semi-annually, so the monthly factor is (1 + annual ÷ 2) to the power of one-sixth, minus one. The 4.50% and 4.75% figures are placeholders for the arithmetic, not offers. Two things to hold onto. First, the offset depends on the size of the price decline relative to the size of the increase, so it will not hold in every month. Second, it assumes the buyer can put 20% down on the lower price, which a buyer who has been saving toward a moving target may or may not be able to do.
Why some brokers are telling buyers to prepare now
In the Canadian Press report, Davelle Morrison of Bosley Real Estate said some buyers might see the increase as a reason to act before borrowing costs potentially climb further. She suggested meeting a mortgage broker or bank now, going through the approval process and securing some kind of price hold so that buyers are protected if borrowing costs go up next year.
We would put the useful part of that more carefully. A pre-approval is an assessment of what you qualify for on your documents, and a hold on pricing typically has an expiry date and conditions. Neither is a commitment to buy, and neither guarantees what the figure will be on the day you close. What preparation does give you is a tested number before you start looking: your income, debts and down payment run through the same qualifying test a lender will use. Our explainer on what a pre-approval actually is covers what it does and does not promise.
Prices are not the only variable either. Sales are down and listings are down, so a buyer still faces a market with limited choice in some segments, even if negotiating room is wider than it was.
If you are buying outside the GTA
Lending is provincial, not local, so the qualifying rules a Toronto buyer meets are the ones a buyer in Waterloo Region, London or Hamilton meets. What differs is the purchase price, and with it the loan size. A GTA headline is useful context, not a forecast for another city. Our latest local reading, for Waterloo Region, is in Waterloo Region in October.
What to do with this
- Run your own version of the arithmetic. Use our mortgage calculators to test your payment at a few prices and a few contract figures.
- Get qualified before you shop. The pre-qualification tool is a starting point; a conversation turns it into a plan.
- First-time buyer? Check the down payment rules and programs in the First Home Hub before you set a budget.
Nearly thirty years in Canadian financial services, based in Waterloo Region and working across Ontario. Most people are handed a product — you deserve a plan.
Market figures are drawn from TRREB's published October 2026 release and the Canadian Press report as carried by Canadian Mortgage Trends and describe regional aggregates, not any individual property. Worked figures use placeholder contract figures, are our own arithmetic and are illustrative only; they are not offers. Everything here is general information only, subject to full qualification, lender approval and final terms.
Sources: TRREB — GTA REALTORS Release October 2026 Stats · Canadian Mortgage Trends — Greater Toronto Area home sales down nearly 8% in October: real estate board