London and St. Thomas, October 2026: The Benchmark Price Fell 4% in a Month

What the October report shows

London and St. Thomas had a quieter October than a year ago, with homes taking the same time to sell and buyers paying a little further below asking.

The London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS (LSTAR) publishes a monthly Residential Market Activity and MLS® Home Price Index report, prepared for it by the Canadian Real Estate Association. The October 2026 edition reports:

• Sales: 557, down 7.5% from October 2025 and 16.2% below October 2024.
• New listings: 1,429, down 1.9% on the year.
• Active listings: 3,247, up 3.3% on the year and 43.0% above October 2023.
• Months of inventory: 5.8, against 5.2 a year earlier.
• Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 39.0, against 41.3.
• Average price: $601,289, down 0.6%. Median: $557,000, down 0.8%.
• Sale-to-list-price ratio: 96.8, against 97.1. Median days on market: 29, unchanged.

Year to date, the board counts 5,812 sales, down 4.0% from the same ten months of 2025, at an average of $617,953, down 3.6%. In our look at September, sales had edged up on the year; October did not continue that.

Two prices that tell different stories

The same report carries a second set of price figures that is easy to skip and worth reading. The MLS® Home Price Index benchmark estimates the price of a typical home with fixed features, so it is not pushed around by which homes happened to sell that month. In October, LSTAR's composite benchmark was $538,000.

• Composite: $538,000, down 4.0% from September, 6.6% from a year ago, 11.1% from three years ago and 16.0% from five years ago.
• Single family: $582,700, down 7.5% on the year.
• Townhouse: $418,800, down 10.6% on the year.
• Apartment: $299,200, down 12.2% on the year.

So why does the average say prices barely moved while the benchmark says they fell more than 6%? An average is simply total dollar volume divided by sales. If a larger share of October's sales were bigger or pricier homes than a year ago, the average holds up even as the typical home loses value. The benchmark strips that mix out. Neither number is wrong; they answer different questions. For anyone whose home is about to be valued, the benchmark is usually the closer guide.

Where a softer benchmark shows up: the appraisal

When a buyer finances a purchase, the lender orders its own valuation. If values have slipped since comparable homes sold, that appraisal can come in below the agreed price. The lender lends against the lower of the price and the appraised value, and the buyer covers the difference in cash.

In a market where buyers are paying, on average, about 3.2% below asking (the sale-to-list figure of 96.8), most purchases are already being negotiated down. The risk is concentrated in a home bought at or above asking, or one whose comparable sales are a few months old. A pre-approval built on your actual documents, and a financing condition with enough days to get the appraisal back, are the practical protections. Here is what a real pre-approval covers.

If you are buying before you sell

Homeowners moving within the region often carry the biggest exposure to a falling benchmark, because the sale price they expect for the current home sets the down payment for the next one. If that sale lands lower than planned, the purchase budget shrinks after the new home is already firm.

• Price your current home against the most recent comparable sales, not last spring's.
• If you need to buy first, bridge financing can cover the gap between two closings, but it is usually approved against a firm sale, not a listing.
• Check whether your mortgage can move with you. Our Next Home Hub covers porting, buying first and selling first.

If you are staying put

A lower benchmark does not change your mortgage balance or your payment. It matters in two situations. If you plan to refinance, consolidate debt or open a line of credit, the amount available is a share of an appraised value, so a lower value means less room. If you renew with your current lender, the value usually is not reassessed at all; switching lenders can involve a fresh appraisal. Our refinancing page covers when borrowing against the home makes sense, and when it does not.

We arrange mortgages across Ontario, and London and southwestern Ontario are named markets for us even though we are based in Waterloo Region. Lending is provincial, not local, so the same lenders and process apply. Our London and Middlesex page explains how that works, and Market Pulse keeps the board's figures month by month.